Political Science

I am calling for some help from the blogosphere, especially Ontario Liberal watchers.

I would appreciate some help taking note of:

a) Seats Liberals lost (just name the defeated MPP and the riding)

examples:

Caroline di Cocco (Sarnia - )
Mario Racco (Thornhill)
Bill Mauro (Thunder Bay - Atikokan)

b) Seats Liberals gained and the name of the newly elected Liberal MPP.

example:

Barrie: Aileen Carroll
York South Weston: Lara Albanese

c) Seats Liberals held with a new MPP instead of the previous MPP. Please name the new MPP and then note who retired.

example: Ottawa Centre - Yasir Naqvi (and Congrats to you, sir!)replacing Richard Patten

* Some of my examples may have been based on 'leading' assumptions of several hours ago *

Goal: just want to figure out the basic math on where Libs lost, and where pickups occurred to replace those losses, and then get to know the new names long distance.
Cheers all, thanks bloggers...

Ontario Election 2007

I miss it a lot as I watch from... Yellowknife Northwest Territories, where my job in Calgary Alberta has taken me this week.

So, how shall we do this?

1. Congratulations Premier McGuinty on your re-election as MPP for Ottawa South, as Premier of Ontario, and of the first consecutively-elected Liberal governments in Ontario in 70 years. That is significant. Even Allan Gregg just said it is significant.

9:15 PM (ET) CTV/Newsnet declares a Liberal victory but does not gues at majority or minority (even though that has looked obvious since polls about two weeks ago)
9:34 PM (ET) approx CTV/Newsnet declares a Liberal majority
9:39 PM (ET) approx CBC/Newsworld declares a Liberal majority

2. Reduction of Liberal vote percentage: it should concern or surprise nobody that the popular vote for the Ontario Liberal Party has slipped. They're the incumbent government. Swing voters who helped them in in 2003 probably went away, and much of the campaign was about Liberal broken promises. There's probably a perpetually grumpy vote that votes against _every_ single government.

2B. Looks like voter turnout is down to near 50%. What does this mean? For one thing, it may mean that the majority of Ontarians didn't feel motivated to get to the polls and make a great change in the province. Personally, I'm always a little bit disappointed when voter turnout is down.

3. Was it a one issue campaign? Clearly John Tory made an error with the concept of public funding to other faith-based schools. On pure logic it may have made sense as a policy, but it does not constitutionally. And, frankly, I would rather a great public education melting pot than elitism or separatism and fragmentation. It is fairly simple for me. Anyway, moving on, I don't think it was a one-issue election. I think there is an endorsement here of the successes and basic stability that the Ontario Liberal Party under Dalton McGuinty has delivered. The voters are never wrong and a clear strong majority of ridings, and a strong 40+ per cent of the total vote, have spoken.

4. Jai Aggarwal [Liberal] Nepean-Carleton; Yasir Naqvi [Liberal] Ottawa Centre; and Megan Cornell [Liberal] Carleton -- Mississippi Mills: Congratulations all on running. Nepean-Carleton is just not winnable for Liberals in its demographics: high end suburbs and rural

5. Some results at 10:15 PM

Ottawa Centre: Yasir Naqvi (LIB) leads 1890 - 1633 [CBC] looking good there alongside a strong Liberal trend and majority

Ottawa West -- Nepean : Jim Watson (LIB) is pretty much doubling Mike Patton [CBC] (only the blindest of sheep are surprised) * by coincidence I flip to CPAC and see Jim's speech on there... where I was in 2003, a Ukrainian Banquet Hall.

Ottawa-Orleans: Phil McNeely (LIB) comfortably leading over Graham Fox (a guy I attended high school with) there was lots of early hype there

6. An hour and a half in, the trend is very strong and clear: Seat Count 71 Libs, 25 Conservatives, 11 Dippers. This makes the reduction in the popular vote almost an afterthought. This is a very successful re-election campaign of an incumbent government.

7. Oh God, Randy Hillier is coming, ahm, coming to Queen's Park. Thankfully, he is, ahm, the Conservative Party's internal challenge, and probably a reporter's dream. "Don Cherry in a flannel shirt and rubber boots" says Lucy VanOldenBarnevold [yikes I must not attempt that again]

8. Conservatives appear shutout in Toronto, though some of the poll counts are still a bit early. York South - Weston: Lara Albanese is winning in the general election (proving once again that by-elections are often anti-government protest votes.)

9. John Milloy re-elected in Kitchener, comfortably it looks. Way to go John. Sorry I could not donate this year (from Alberta!)

10. 10:45 PM (ET) Dalton McGuinty is on stage to make his speech. A good speech. Concise and effective. Forward-looking. Grateful. High Road. Generous in tone. Humble as well. Just right. Trying to close it off in time for the

11. Awkward: CTV is interviewing Premier McGuinty live while John Tory is taking the stage at his HQ and mouthing the words thank you. CTV has also declared that he was defeated in the Don Valley West riding he chose to run in by incumbent Liberal dynamo Kathleen Wynne. CTV exited gracefully from Dalton and picked up on John Tory, who is conceding. I don't think personally that John Tory made a mistake in taking a harder route to try to get in to Queen's Park (not on safe Blue Tory Dufferin coattails but on his own merit) A stronger central Conservative campaign would have made a difference here. That did not come to pass. John Tory says it was his first campaign as a Party Leader and a learning experience. He will be back. To my own Liberal friends: do not rest on laurels and do not get complacent. John Tory is a smart guy and wwe've learned from Stephen Harper that a good review and learn can turn around a campaign for next time (especially if combined with some scandal...)

Liberal Majority. Stability. No chaos. Solid economy. More challenges ahead. A good man and team in charge, to take them on further.

Hear Hear!

DISCLAIMER about "King of Kensington" writing on electionprediction.org

This King of Kensington must be an NDP party HQ type from Toronto, writing optimistically, of course.

This is not a posting from the New King of Kensington (out in Calgary) who actually knows a thing or two about Ottawa politics, including excellent knowlege of Ottawa Centre, and personal knowledge of the excellent nominated Liberal candidate, one Yasir Naqvi.

My prediction here on my own blog:

Liberals hold Ottawa Centre in provincial election, unless NDP somehow produces a superstar candidate. The margin will be reduced, naturally, because Richard Patten has departed, and Dalton McGuinty is now an incumbent government Premier (who has delivered an excellent overall package for Ontarians, by the way, despite the 'noise' out there about the health care levy)

Prediction: Liberal hold.

This prediction will be posted on the electionprediction site when time and technology properly permits.

The End.



07 05 13 King of Kensington
70.52.186.165
This urban seat chock-full of civil servants and creative class/intelligentsia seats is a top-tier pickup for the NDP. Paul Dewar won this seat federally even when many claimed the seat's NDP stature was entirely votes for Ed Broadbent.

It's been a little while but there's really truly only one thing to say for this weekend

Go Sens Go!

I hope that all of Canada gets on board!

(Also, I respect the Devils too much to count them out already, so the Sens must continue to show an A-game, discipline, speed, skill and hunger. I think the hunger is there.)

A Good Night for Hockey (apologies to Bob Johnson, RIP)

This blog entry is dedicated to Anne-Marie Erickson and David Walker, colleagues of mine at work. It is also happily dedicated to Stephane Thivierge and David Michaud. Good Habs fans.

1. Senators 5 Montreal Canadiens 3. Game summary The Senators and Canadiens have now eached played 56 games and the Senators are in 5th place. The Habs are one point behind and holding 6th place.

2. In even better news, (this one is for you, Anne-Marie and Dave) the young Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Leafs 6-5, in overtime. I love that Pittsburgh team... not just because they beat the Leafs, but because they are an emerging force. They could even remind one of the young Edmonton Oilers, if the NHL rules stay open and penalties keep getting called. The Penguins are currently holding 3rd place, and could hypothetically be in 3rd because they have games in hand.

And, so, the lowly "red hot" Leafs cling desperately to 9th place by their fingernails, like a turbot in the north Atlantic a la Brian Tobin. Poor, poor Leafs. If they scrape in, they'd meet Buffalo, who have their number and are far far far faster, younger, and better.

Here are the Eastern conference standings:

Good night, and Good Luck!
(Leafs Suck)

Recent NHL results

Tonight was another good night in the NHL's Northeast division. First, the now chugging along smartly Ottawa Senators put a nice solid win on the board versus the New York Islanders, who are just a little above them in the Eastern Conference standings, around the 8th place playoff zone. The Senators are now more or less in a virtual tie with the Toronto MakeBelieves, who lost yet again tonight.

This must have been a painful reminder for the Maple Leafs of last Thursday's 5-0 humiliation at the hands of the same Atlanta Thrashers (powered by ex-Senator Marian Hossa.) Meanwhile, that same night, Ottawa, now storming along, whupped the Florida Panthers 6-0. I love scores like those on the same night ( I kinda lost the blog opportunity amid the lead-in hype to the Liberal convention )

The game recap, which I linked you to, contains a typical hockey quote from Dany Heatley:

"This is what we knew we were capable of," Heatley said. "We're a good team and we skate well. All we're doing is playing well as a team, which we weren't doing early on."

This is of course pretty much what I figured about the Senators' early difficulties: the composition of the team has changed, with the departure of Zdeno Chara from the Defence, and changes to the attack, too, with the departure of Martin Havlat. The Senators have taken some time to gel as a unit this fall. Looks to me like they have their unity and their systems up and running now. As I have noted, injuries to leader Wade Redden have not been helpful. Back to tonight, slight concern about Alfredsson's ankle, however, in the footage I saw, he skated off on his own power. So, rest him the rest of tonight, rest him tomorrow against the Washington Capitals, if necessary.

Sunday December 3rd - Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip "The Christmas Show"

I won't put in any spoilers, because NBC actually airs the show on Monday nights. ButI get it on CTV in Canada and just finished watching it.

Anyway, while it is not up to the power of the West Wing Season I Christmas Episode (I don't know the title, but it was all built around a climax with 'the Little Drummer Boy') [and nothing can possibly top the magnificence of that particular episode] Studio 60's first go at it was pretty solid: with lots of romance, beautiful music with meaning, and an inspiring display of political free speech relevance from an unexpected source, it was a pretty good package. So I take it that was the end.

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It being December 3rd, and me being in town this weekend, I put up my little Christmas tree in my apartment. The red lights are new, just red, on green, in part because red and green are the class Christmas colours, but, also, symbolically, because red and green may well symbolize the new Liberal ethos under the guidance of Stephane Dion. Bonne chance, M. Dion.

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You'll also find a photo of Snoopy doing his figure skating in the Charlie Brown Christmas Special, the absolute best Christmas TV of all time, on the screen of my apartment television.

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Er, that's it. Gotta return to "work week" mode.

I have to pick on Vijay Sappani --- AGAIN

RE:

More Support: Malhi, Brison. Sgro, Brison, Cauchon
December 2nd, 2006

Gurbax Malhi , Tony Valeri, Brison have moved in. I’m on the phone with some of my folks and it looks like we will have about 147 delegates moving in to Iggy now form the South Asian community!!!!

It looks like we are going to win!!!

Update: Sgro is in, Cauchon to Iggy

Posted in Politics | Comments Off

COMMENT I COULD NOT MAKE ON VIJAY's OWN SITE:

So desperate to spin, Vijay appears to have counted Scott Brison twice in the same headline. I have already commented for a long time that longtime dedication to the Liberal Party of Canada cause is a key with me. I have been consistent in saying for this reason, I was not supportive of a Scott Brison, of newly arrived Ignatieff, and that it was a factor in my not supporting Bob Rae directly other than applauding his strengths and applauding the fact he has come to our Party. Oh yeah, there's no way I would have supported Stronack either.

So there you go. It is fitting that Brison joins Iggy.

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This thing is over. If it is not, I would be shocked, and if it is not, Ignatieff's organizers would deserve to win.
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I have e-canvassed some swing voters, such as Richard Mahoney (see previous post) and the Dion consensus was very solid.

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I believe it to be over.

a moderate little scoop

Rae supporter Richard Mahoney and key Paul Martin backer selected STEPHANE DION.

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Jean Chretien is now on stage -> he's looking great, and so are Party prospects.

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I think it's in the bag for Dion.

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Je lui souhaite la meilleure chance et j'ai hate de l'appuyer en attaque contre Stephen Harper.

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de retour a Jean Chretien sur le podium.

-fin-

Ignatieff update

Ignatieff campaign circulating a compilation of public polling to voting candidates. Supposedly all the polls throughout the year say Ignatieff has the best chance against Stephen Harper.

I disagree. The Liberal Party of Canada is the best chance against Stephen Harper.

I also don't think circulating a bunch of non-election hypothetical polls outside of the Liberal voters at this convention matter much at all.

That seems to me to be another mistake. This is about the emotions of the most committed Liberal Party of Canada delegates, who are voting today. Inside a Liberal convention Hall.

CBC just reported that Martin Cauchon is about to endorse Ignatieff. I have a lot of respect for Martin Cauchon. I will respect this decision, too.

However, here are names that have moved to Dion in the last little while:

Ken Dryden
Martha Hall Findlay
Maurizio Bevilacqua
John Godfrey
Ralph Goodale

(and more)...

Now adding: Richard Mahoney

So, hopefully final results in about 1.5 hours.

Here is hopeing as well that a decisive victor emerges and that the Party can unite.

Let all Liberals get ready to fight Harper together!